"""Daily picks: compute model predictions for upcoming fixtures across leagues. - Bundesliga: fixtures from OpenLigaDB (richer), EV merged from the-odds-api - Other top-5 leagues: fixtures+odds from the-odds-api (needs ODDS_API_KEY), standings from Wikipedia - Output: markdown report to ./picks_today.md, printed to stdout - Telegram: if TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN + TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID are set, sends the report Usage: python3 picks.py """ import os import sys import json import datetime sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) from sources import (LEAGUES, openligadb_matches, openligadb_current_season, standings_with_avg, oddsapi_fixtures, oddsapi_key, match_team) from model import predict, ev_1x2 UTC = datetime.timezone.utc FIXTURE_WINDOW_DAYS = 3 KO_SLACK_H = 6 # kickoff matching tolerance for merging odds onto fixtures def fmt_odds_line(home, away, st, avg, n_map, odds=None): p = predict(st[home], st[away], avg, n_map.get(home), n_map.get(away)) line = (f"{home} vs {away} | 1 {p['ph']:.0%} X {p['pd']:.0%} " f"2 {p['pa']:.0%} | pick {p['pick']} ({p['pick_prob']:.0%})") if odds: o = {"1": odds.get(home), "X": odds.get("Draw"), "2": odds.get(away)} ev = ev_1x2(o, {"1": p["ph"], "X": p["pd"], "2": p["pa"]}) best_key = max(ev, key=lambda k: ev[k]["ev"]) if ev else None best = ev[best_key] if best_key else None if best and best["ev"] > 0.50: flag = f" ⚠HUGE({best_key})" # model-market clash = likely model error elif best and best["ev"] > 0.04: flag = f" ⚡BET({best_key})" else: flag = "" k = best["kelly"] * 100 if best else 0 line += (f" | odds {o['1'] or '-'}/{o['X'] or '-'}/{o['2'] or '-'}" f" | EV({best_key}) {best['ev']:+.0%} K {k:.1f}%{flag}") return line def remap_odds(odds, st): """Map the-odds-api outcome names (English short) onto standings keys.""" if not odds: return odds out = {} for k, v in odds.items(): if k == "Draw": out["Draw"] = v else: out[match_team(k, st) or k] = v return out def bundesliga_block(): season = openligadb_current_season() matches = openligadb_matches("bl1", season) now = datetime.datetime.now(UTC).isoformat() horizon = (datetime.datetime.now(UTC) + datetime.timedelta(days=FIXTURE_WINDOW_DAYS)).isoformat() upcoming = [m for m in matches if not m["finished"] and m["kickoff_utc"] and now <= m["kickoff_utc"] <= horizon] st = standings_with_avg(LEAGUES["Bundesliga"]) avg = st.pop("_avg") n_map = st.pop("_n") odds_by_ko = {} # (norm_home, norm_away) -> odds dict if oddsapi_key(): for f in oddsapi_fixtures(LEAGUES["Bundesliga"]["odds_key"]): h = match_team(f["home"], st) a = match_team(f["away"], st) if h and a: odds_by_ko[(h, a)] = remap_odds(f["odds"], st) lines = ["## Bundesliga", "```"] n_ev = 0 for m in sorted(upcoming, key=lambda x: x["kickoff_utc"]): h, a = m["home"], m["away"] if h not in st or a not in st: continue odds = odds_by_ko.get((h, a)) if odds: n_ev += 1 p = predict(st[h], st[a], avg, n_map.get(h), n_map.get(a)) lines.append(fmt_odds_line(h, a, st, avg, n_map, odds) + f" | xG {p['lh']+p['la']:.1f}" f" | {m['kickoff_utc'][5:16]} UTC") lines.append("```") if not oddsapi_key(): lines.append("_Only Bundesliga: set ODDS_API_KEY to enable the other " "leagues + EV layer_") elif n_ev == 0: lines.append("_No odds matched for today's fixtures_") return "\n".join(lines) def ev_block_for(league_name, cfg): if not oddsapi_key(): return "" st = standings_with_avg(cfg) avg = st.pop("_avg") n_map = st.pop("_n") fixs = oddsapi_fixtures(cfg["odds_key"]) now = datetime.datetime.now(UTC).isoformat() horizon = (datetime.datetime.now(UTC) + datetime.timedelta(days=FIXTURE_WINDOW_DAYS)).isoformat() fixs = [f for f in fixs if f["kickoff_utc"] and now <= f["kickoff_utc"] <= horizon] lines = [f"## {league_name}", "```"] n = 0 for f in fixs: h = match_team(f["home"], st) a = match_team(f["away"], st) if not h or not a or not f.get("odds"): continue n += 1 ko = (f["kickoff_utc"] or "")[5:16] lines.append(fmt_odds_line(h, a, st, avg, n_map, remap_odds(f["odds"], st)) + f" | {ko} UTC") lines.append("```") if n == 0: return f"## {league_name}\n_No fixtures with odds right now_" return "\n".join(lines) def send_telegram(text, chat=None, parse=True): token = os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN", "").strip() chat = chat or os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID", "").strip() if not token or not chat: return False import urllib.request import urllib.parse import json for i in range(0, len(text), 3800): params = {"chat_id": chat, "text": text[i:i+3800]} if parse: params["parse_mode"] = "Markdown" payload = urllib.parse.urlencode(params).encode() req = urllib.request.Request( f"https://api.telegram.org/bot{token}/sendMessage", data=payload, headers={"Content-Type": "application/x-www-form-urlencoded"}) try: with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=25) as r: resp = json.loads(r.read()) except urllib.error.HTTPError as e: if e.code == 400 and parse: return send_telegram(text, chat, parse=False) print("telegram HTTP", e.code, e.read().decode("utf-8", "replace")[:200]) return False except Exception as e: print("telegram failed:", e) return False if not resp.get("ok"): print("telegram error:", resp) return False return True def world_block(): """World.xyz section: fair binary prices for upcoming matches. Prices are fetched by no feed (catalog API is Cloudflare-gated to the world.xyz frontend), so you compare these fair prices against the YES price shown in Phantom. BUY YES <= fair-0.07, BUY NO >= fair+0.07 (0.05 edge + 0.02 dealer spread). world_check.py does the math per market. """ from world import save_prices from model import binary_markets now = datetime.datetime.now(UTC).isoformat() horizon = (datetime.datetime.now(UTC) + datetime.timedelta(days=FIXTURE_WINDOW_DAYS)).isoformat() rows, lines = [], ["## World.xyz — fair binary prices (compare in Phantom)", "```"] # Bundesliga (OpenLigaDB fixtures) matches = openligadb_matches("bl1", openligadb_current_season()) upcoming = [m for m in matches if not m["finished"] and m["kickoff_utc"] and now <= m["kickoff_utc"] <= horizon] st = standings_with_avg(LEAGUES["Bundesliga"]) avg, n_map = st.pop("_avg"), st.pop("_n") for m in sorted(upcoming, key=lambda x: x["kickoff_utc"]): h, a = m["home"], m["away"] if h not in st or a not in st: continue p = predict(st[h], st[a], avg, n_map.get(h), n_map.get(a)) b = binary_markets(p["lh"], p["la"]) rows.append({"league": "Bundesliga", "home": h, "away": a, "kickoff_utc": m["kickoff_utc"], "markets": b}) # other leagues (the-odds-api fixtures, cached) for name, cfg in LEAGUES.items(): if cfg.get("openligadb"): continue st = standings_with_avg(cfg) avg, n_map = st.pop("_avg"), st.pop("_n") for f in oddsapi_fixtures(cfg["odds_key"]): if not f["kickoff_utc"] or not (now <= f["kickoff_utc"] <= horizon): continue h = match_team(f["home"], st) a = match_team(f["away"], st) if not h or not a: continue p = predict(st[h], st[a], avg, n_map.get(h), n_map.get(a)) b = binary_markets(p["lh"], p["la"]) rows.append({"league": name, "home": h, "away": a, "kickoff_utc": f["kickoff_utc"], "markets": b}) for r in sorted(rows, key=lambda x: x["kickoff_utc"]): b = r["markets"] def thr(key): v = b[key] return f"{key}: {v:.0%} (YES≤{v-0.07:.0%} / NO≥{v+0.07:.0%})" line = f"{r['home']} vs {r['away']} | {thr('home_win')} | {thr('over_2_5')}" if abs(b["btts"] - 0.5) > 0.25: line += f" | {thr('btts')}" lines.append(line) lines.append("```") lines.append("_Check a price: python3 world_check.py \" vs \" " "[home_win|away_win|over_2_5|under_2_5|btts]_") save_prices(rows) global LAST_FIXTURES LAST_FIXTURES = [{"league": r["league"], "home": r["home"], "away": r["away"], "kickoff_utc": r["kickoff_utc"]} for r in rows] return "\n".join(lines) def main(): blocks = [bundesliga_block()] for name, cfg in LEAGUES.items(): if cfg.get("openligadb"): continue blk = ev_block_for(name, cfg) if blk: blocks.append(blk) blocks.append(world_block()) # Match context (Digitain form/H2H) — bonus data, must never break the run try: import statsfeed fixtures = globals().get("LAST_FIXTURES") or [] if fixtures: ctxs = statsfeed.build_context(fixtures) cm = statsfeed.context_markdown(ctxs) if cm: blocks.append(cm) statsfeed.write_app_context(ctxs) print("[context]", len(ctxs), "fixtures contextualized") except Exception as e: print("[context] skipped:", e) report = ("# Sports picks — {}\n\n".format( datetime.datetime.now(UTC).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC")) + "\n\n".join(blocks)) out = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "picks_today.md") with open(out, "w") as f: f.write(report) # Append to permanent history so audit.py can grade rounds after the # daily file has been overwritten by the next run. hist = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "picks_history.md") try: prev_lines = open(hist, encoding="utf-8").read().splitlines() except OSError: prev_lines = [] prev_dates = [l for l in prev_lines if l.startswith("# Sports picks —")] today_hdr = "# Sports picks — " + datetime.datetime.now(UTC).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if not prev_dates or not prev_dates[-1].startswith(today_hdr): with open(hist, "a", encoding="utf-8") as f: f.write(report + "\n\n---\n\n") print(report) print("\n[saved to]", out) # Export JSON for the Telegram mini-app (picks UI) try: import world as world_mod web_data = [] for r in world_mod.load_prices(): web_data.append({ "league": r.get("league"), "home": r.get("home"), "away": r.get("away"), "kickoff_utc": r.get("kickoff_utc", ""), "markets": r.get("markets"), }) app_data = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "app_data.json") with open(app_data, "w") as f: json.dump({"generated_utc": datetime.datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(), "matches": web_data}, f, ensure_ascii=False) print("[app_data]", app_data, len(web_data), "matches") except Exception as e: print("[app_data] failed:", e) if send_telegram(report): print("[telegram] sent") if __name__ == "__main__": main()